We believe that whatever stabilizing impact nuclear weapons may have had during the Cold War, any residual benefits of these arsenals are now overshadowed by the growing risks of proliferation and the related risk of nuclear terrorism.
In April of this year, Presidents Obama and Medvedev jointly declared their commitment to “achieving a nuclear free world”. As these two presidents and other leaders begin to pursue the important near-term measures presented in London and Prague – all of which we fully endorse – we are developing a practical, end-to-end strategy – including near, medium and long-term steps – for the phased, verified, proportionate reduction of all nuclear weapons to zero.
In pursuing global zero, nations will confront profound and complex political and security issues. Before ratifying a global zero accord, nations will assess whether going to zero will serve their national interests, taking into consideration the state of various geopolitical, regional and national security issues at that time. The Commission is examining these issues and their interrelationship with our plan for the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Ultimately, it will fall to political leaders to decide on a course toward a world free of nuclear weapons. Ours is not the only possible approach, but we hope that the process we will outline here serves as a useful framework and encourages international dialogue among leaders, experts and the public on strategies for achieving global zero.
The key elements of the four phases:
Phase 1 (2010 – 2013)
• Negotiate a bilateral accord for the United States and Russia to reduce to 1,000 total warheads each.
• Prepare for multilateral negotiations.
Phase 2 (2014 – 2018)
• In a multilateral framework, the U.S. and Russia reach agreement to reduce to 500 total warheads each (to be implemented by 2021) as long as all other nuclear weapons countries agree to freeze their stockpiles until 2018, followed by proportional reductions until 2021.
• Entry into force upon ratification by all nuclear weapons countries.
• The accord establishes a verification and enforcement system, including:
• Complete audit of delivery vehicles, warheads, and materials;
• Intrusive verification—no-notice, on-site inspections;
• Agreed mechanism for resolving disputes and enforcing compliance.
• Strengthen safeguards on the civilian nuclear fuel cycle to prevent diversion of materials to build weapons.
Phase 3 (2019 – 2023)
• Negotiate a global zero accord, which includes:
• A schedule for the phased, verified, proportionate reduction of all nuclear arsenals to zero total warheads by 2030;
• A requirement that all nuclear capable countries sign and ratify the global zero accord in order for it to enter into force;
• Continued implementation of the verification and enforcement system.
Phase 4 (2024 – 2030)
• Complete the phased, verified, proportionate reduction of all nuclear arsenals to zero total warheads by 2030.
• Continue the comprehensive verification and enforcement system.
Download the full Global Zero Action Plan
