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SPIEGEL ONLINE: US President Obama is in Moscow right now for his first formal summit with Russian President Medvedev. At the close of the trip, an agreement on further nuclear disarmament is expected. How important are these talks if you take into account the fact that the current nuclear threats are more likely to come from other corners of the world?

Wolfgang Ischinger: The negotiations between the USA and Russia over a successor treaty to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) are of great importance. The two countries possess 96 percent of the world's nuclear weapons. Russia has 2,700 deployable nuclear warheads; the US has 2,200. I assume that this summit will set the course for a dramatic reduction of these weapons.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: There's not much time left: The old START Treaty expires in December. What do Obama and Medvedev need to agree on in concrete terms?

 

Ischinger: They need to reaffirm the political goal of having the treaty wrapped up by the end of the year. And they need to clear one major hindrance out of the way: Russia has so far rejected the planned US missile defense in Eastern Europe.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Russia is demanding a change of policy in Washington. Should Obama yield for the sake of speeding up disarmament negotiations?

 

Ischinger: They need to reaffirm the political goal of having the treaty wrapped up by the end of the year. And they need to clear one major hindrance out of the way: Russia has so far rejected the planned US missile defense in Eastern Europe.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Russia is demanding a change of policy in Washington. Should Obama yield for the sake of speeding up disarmament negotiations?

Ischinger: From what I am hearing from within the US government, Obama is prepared to approach the

Ischinger: From what I am hearing from within the US government, Obama is prepared to approach the Russians. He envisions a solution which could include a joint US and Russian missile defense with the inclusion of the Europeans. It will also be important that our partners in Warsaw and Prague not be left standing out in the rain. But one must be able to find creative solutions for that.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is that achievable by December?

Ischinger: Yes, but it requires great political determination on the part of Obama and Medvedev. Much is dependent on this week's summit. I personally would also desire a signal for our Global Zero plan, in other words a nuclear disarmament program that goes beyond Russia and the US to include other nuclear powers.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The Global Zero initiative, in which you are an active participant, was created six months ago by 100 former diplomats and leading politicians. By 2030, you are seeking a nuclear weapons-free world. What makes you so optimistic?

Ischinger: Of course this is an extraordinarily ambitious goal, and some people are shaking their heads at. But we know from recent history that nothing is impossible in politics. In order to achieve significant progress in disarmament, it is important to strengthen the vision of a world that is free of nuclear weapons and back it up with a concrete program. Our initiative has an entirely different level of credibility than other campaigns of the past because we have former top-level negotiators and influential personalities from the US, Russia, China and other countries on board.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Still, the vision of a nuclear weapons-free world seems very removed from reality. North Korea is eagerly testing missiles and wants to have a deployable bomb by 2012, and Iran is steaming full-speed ahead with its nuclear program. Such countries see the nuclear bomb as the only true deterrent against regime change. Why should they abandon their ambitions?

 

Ischinger: Of course these countries won't halt their programs overnight just because the US and Russia agree to a START successor. But for years, people have been complaining that the nuclear powers haven't stuck with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. A number of countries feel they are being picked on while other nuclear powers happily continue to arm themselves. In order to confer new legitimacy for the Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is necessary for the US and Russia to set a good example.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The crisis in Iran's regime has led Tehran to threaten to break off diplomatic ties with the West. Are the nuclear negotiations now history?

Ischinger: I support the German government's policy to keep our hand outstretched to the Iranians. We mustn't withdraw now, despite all the criticism of how the protests were repressed. The clock is ticking here, luckily it's not the bomb ticking yet. I also think Tehran will be prepared to resume earlier negotiations on its nuclear program soon. It's not in the interest of the Iranian government to completely isolate itself internationally.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, last week advised Israel to attack Iran before it is too late. Do you see this danger?

Ischinger: The danger would increase if the West were to break off negotiations with Iran. But this is not the case. I'm glad John Bolton is no longer a member of the American government. Such words are highly counterproductive. That's grist to the mill for the wrong people in Tehran.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The smaller nuclear powers aren't keen on giving up their arsenals either. Britain's opposition Conservatives want new nuclear submarines, in India and Pakistan nuclear weapons are a question of national pride, and an Israel surrounded by enemies is unlikely to give up its nuclear protection. How do you think the resistance can be broken?

Ischinger: I can understand that the answer from countries like France, Britain and China so far has been: Let the US and Russia reduce their arsenals down to our levels, then we can talk. That's why the four-stage plan of Global Zero envisages the US and Russia initially reducing their arsenals to 1,000 usable warheads each before the other states are incorporated in the negotiations.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Which states will be hardest to convince?

Ischinger: The responses from Paris and London haven't been entirely negative. In the long term China won't say no to talks either. Beijing is increasingly becoming a player in nuclear weapons control, as one can see in how they're dealing with Iran and North Korea. It will be more difficult with others, for example Pakistan.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What role could the Europeans play? There's no common EU position, with two nuclear powers and 25 non-nuclear ones.

Ischinger: Given its early decision to do without, Germany as an important non-nuclear power has special credibility when it comes to pushing for non-proliferation. That's why it's important that we see ourselves -- and that Europe overall sees itself -- as an engine of disarmament in future.

 

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Isn't the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons ultimately unrealistic given that the knowledge of how to build one can't be eradicated? How can voluntary self-restraint work in the long term?

Ischinger: It can work if there's enough confidence amid nations. For that to happen we need comprehensive monitoring and verification. That's what our Global Zero plan envisages. And nuclear disarmament must be accompanied by conventional disarmament. Many Russian strategists say: Nuclear disarmament is all well and good, but what happens when we've got rid of all our nuclear weapons and face a highly armed US with our weak conventional army? The atomic bomb is the great leveller. That's why a world free of nuclear weapons is only feasible if there's conventional disarmament as well.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: So the US must give up its military superiority?

Ischinger: Initially we are only thinking of what is politically achievable. It can't go on that I run my Munich Security Conference every February and thousands of people protest on the streets because they think politics without a moral foundation is happening here. The Global Zero campaign addresses these issues. It's a good goal, it's a legitimate goal, and it's not a crazy goal. Obama and Medvedev both embraced it at their meeting in London in April -- a considerable success after just a few months of our campaign.

Interview conducted by Carsten Volkery.