Introduction
Building upon the two definitive studies of U.S. nuclear weapons spending (Brookings Institution’s Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940 and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Security Spending: Assessing Costs, Examining Priorities), this report casts a wider net to capture the entire world’s spending on nuclear weapons programs. The principal finding: a massive expenditure will be made over the next decade.
Chart 1: Total Military and Nuclear Weapons Spending 2010-2011
Source: Arms Control Association
Note: figures in billions of US dollars. Core costs refer to researching, developing, procuring, testing, operating, maintaining, and upgrading the nuclear arsenal (weapons and their delivery vehicles) and its key nuclear command-control-communications and early warning infrastructure; full costs add unpaid/deferred environmental and health costs, missile defenses assigned to defend against nuclear weapons., nuclear threat reduction and incident management. Not included are air defenses, anti-submarine warfare and nuclear-weapons related intelligence and surveillance expenses. Primary sources: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; IISS Military Balance; CIA World Factbook, and other sources identified in the text of this report.
The 8.5 nuclear weapons countries (North Korea is half-way there) are passing a new milestone this year by collectively spending approximately one hundred billion dollars on their nuclear programs. This conservatively estimated expenditure represents about 9 percent of their total annual military spending.
At this rate the nuclear-armed states will spend, conservatively estimated, at least one trillion dollars on nuclear weapons and their direct support systems over the next decade. It will likely go significantly higher as numerous modernization programs underway are ramped up. It would go higher still if the true intentions of many non-nuclear weapons countries could be divined and their secret weapons programs added to the total.